With 30 days left until Election Day, I wanted to make some predictions and some observations on this election cycle. First off, this has been an incredibly active cycle. I have been surprised by the battle over the 157th State Rep. race. I was blown away by the Obama HQ tonight. There were 12 or so people making phone calls and at least 5 people were sent out on registration drives. The lady there told me they made 2200 calls yesterday alone. There seems to be no coordination between the local democratic party and the Obama campaign. Not really surprising, I guess. D's always seem to miss the boat on these things. If the down ballot candidates can catch the Obama wave and voter outreach, there is no hope for the Republicans. I have not had a chance to check out the CCRC phone banking but I hear the script is rather bland. They were never hopping events but I assume they haven't gotten any more spirited than the Bush/Cheney 2004 campaign.

Ciarrocchi/Drucker --- The toughest one of the bunch. Drucker is a bit of a dud but the Republican brand is a bit tarnished these days. Guy pulls Tred. by a couple of hundred votes but is trounced in Schuylkill and Phoenixville. Lower Prov. would go for Guy with a Rubley endorsement but hell still has not frozen over. They got the shaft in the endorsement process when Mont Co GOP wouldn't let them endorse the candidate they wanted (JD). That makes it Drucker by 4 (52-48).

Dinniman/Kantrowitz --- When you are struggling with name recognition 30 days out, you got some problems. They are multiplied when you are running against the most liked (respected, seen) politician in the County (or Count eeee as he would say). The admiral is taking it to the end though but sacrificial lamb is the only term I can come up with to describe his candidacy. The only question here is can Dinniman break 80%. I say yes. Dinniman 81% - 19%. ***Remember he got 40% of the Republican vote in the special election.***

Gerlach/Roggio --- Gerlach is happy that 30 some of his colleagues have decided not to seek reelection because that basically removed him from the top ten targeted seats this cycle. I don't think Jim has a problem here unless Obama swamps McCain in the County and the District. This is a tough district for an R. but Jim has managed to hold on. Gerlach wins again 53% - 47%

Obama/McCain --- McCain can't fool the moderates this year and his pick of Palin has made some of the middle of the roaders a bit upset. Obama wins the County by 6% (Remember there are still parts of the County that is closer to Alabama than Philadelphia). I think Obama wins the Commonwealth by 13% to 15% depending on turnout. Obama wins the 157th by 10%.

It is hard when the top of the ticket has a killer organization and the top local candidate is very popular also. I think the County R's stand to lose a couple of State Rep seats (Art Hershey's seat being the other) which should make a few people upset in West Chester but the kind of brought it on themselves.